Long-term horizon, research analyst, macro, banks Summary CPI disappointed markets for the fourth consecutive month. Fed Chair Yellen said that core inflation movements will be the main driver of further hikes. The dollar bears are better positioned in the short term, but long term, the dollar still has strong gain potential. The US CPI release surprised to the downside for the fourth consecutive month, printing flat in June mainly due to decrease in gasoline prices.
Under OMB's "base" scenario, revenue would rise from about 17 percent of GDP this year to nearly 20 percent by and nearly 23 percent by Meanwhile, non-interest spending would fall slightly from nearly 20 percent this year to As a result, OMB projects the budget would reach balance by and debt would be completely paid off by OMB also produces a number of alternative scenarios in which different assumptions are made with regards to economic growth, revenue growth, health care spending, etc.
Under OMB's "optimistic" scenario, which assumes faster economic growth and lower health care costs, the budget would be balanced by and the debt paid off before Under its "pessimistic" scenario, the budget would never balance and the debt would reach percent of GDP by about A portion of the difference comes from the policies in the President's budget, which reduce deficits by almost 1.
However, the differences also appear to be driven by assumptions. On health care, OMB projects much slower excess cost growth. As a result, Medicare and Medicaid costs would increase from 4. The two agencies also project different long-term economic growth rates -- CBO projects annual growth of real GDP to average between 2.
But instead of throwing them out the door, as some have suggested, it's useful to see the range of OMB estimates. It is encouraging that OMB projects a falling debt-to-GDP ratio over the long-term, but these projections should be viewed with at least some caution. Last week, we simulated how CBO might project the President's budget when it releases its re-estimates in the coming weeks and found that CBO could potentially estimate a rising debt path later this decade under the President's proposals -- with debt exceeding 73 percent of GDP in instead of the 69 percent that OMB projects.
The trajectory of this difference could hold for long-term estimates as well. In the face of so much uncertainty, it would be prudent to prepare for more pessimistic scenarios and then readjust expectations if events turned out to be more favorable.
To that end, it is encouraging that the President's budget calls for further deficit reduction beyond what has been enacted, but additional reforms will likely be needed to put the debt on a clear downward path over the next two decades instead of a stabilized path.Eurosystem/ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area.
The macroeconomic projections cover the outlook for the euro area, in particular with regard to GDP and inflation.
Consumer Price Index Forecasts This web site contains forecasts of the annual CPI-U for both the United States and Seattle. In addition, forecasts of the monthly U.S. CPI-W and the bi-monthly Seattle CPI-W targeted to the specific requirements of City of Seattle labor agreements are included.
Projections for the Year Annual-Average Rate of CPI Inflation (chart) Projections for the Year Annual-Average Rate of PCE Inflation (chart) The charts below show the probabilities that the forecasters are assigning to the possibility that fourth-quarter over fourth-quarter core PCE inflation in and will fall into each of 10 ranges.
2/14/ - 1 - PROJECTIONS OF NATIONAL HEALTH EXPENDITURES: METHODOLOGY AND MODEL SPECIFICATION The Office of the Actuary (OACT) in the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) produces short-term (year) projections of health care spending for categories in the National Health Expenditure.
Global Salary Increase Projections for Infographic Last updated November , these salary increase projections are based on ERI Economic Research Institute's salary database, plus global historical trends and projections.
Economic and Employment Projections.
Projections data have a 10 year time horizon, unless otherwise noted. Data is not available for intervening consecutive years. Clicking on a 'More' button below will show you the most frequently used links for topical geographic data.